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Quiet Start to a Potentially Noisy Week | German Trade Surplus Improves

Published December 9, 2019

• It’s a quiet start to the week, but it is likely the calm before the storm given the glut of macro events on the calendar this week. The Fed and ECB policy meetings highlight the week, but there is also US Retail Sales, US CPI, Canada Housing data, and German HICP on the economic calendar. Outside of the data, FX markets could get a further jolt from headlines surrounding Wednesday’s UK Election, the fast-approaching US-China tariff deadline, and the looming impeachment vote in US Congress.

• Germany’s October trade surplus improved in October after a second straight month of strong export numbers. While the news is positive, some euro analysts are questioning how long this can last given the weak factory and industrial numbers as of late. The euro is up slightly against the dollar and is the strongest among the majors heading into the American trading session.

• The search for the Bank of Canada’s next Governor is underway after the Bank announced current Governor Stephen Poloz will retire after his mandate ends in June 2020. Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Wilkins seems to be the early front-runner, although there is likely to be other internal and external candidates considered. If Wilkins does become the successor to Poloz, she would become the first woman ever to lead Canada’s central bank.