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Oil, Loonie Rise to Start a Busy Week as Venezuela Eyes OPEC Deal

Published September 19, 2016
  • It's an important week for USDCAD traders as we hear from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz on Tuesday ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision and Janet Yellen's press conference on Wednesday
  • Poloz is delivering a speech entitled "Living with lower for longer" in Quebec City tomorrow at 1235ET during which he may offer clues on the BoC's economic growth forecast and interest rate outlook amid softness in the export sector
  • Any hint that rates will be on hold for longer than expected (or even cut) could bring further weakness to the Loonie
  • On Wednesday, September's highly anticipated Fed meeting comes to a conclusion and Janet Yellen will be holding her quarterly press conference after the decision is delivered at 2pm ET
  • The Fed will also be releasing their updated projections for US economic growth, inflation, unemployment and interest rates so there will be lots of data to mull over; reactions across currency and bond markets could prove volatile
  • In early trade to start the week, oil rose as much as 2% after Venezuela's President expressed his confidence that a production deal could be reached among OPEC producers later this month
  • WTI hit a high of $43.91 which fueled a move into the low 1.3100's for USDCAD before the greenback elicited strong support
  • There is no major economic data from either the US or Canada today; this week's highlights will be the US Fed decision Tuesday and Canadian CPI and Retail Sales on Friday

Charts: (1) USDCAD formed a base at 1.2825 and now looks set for a test of range highs circa 1.3255. (2) Economic Calendar.