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All Eyes on the Bank of Canada Tomorrow

Published September 5, 2017
  • Markets have priced in higher than a 50% chance of a 25-point rate increase tomorrow by the Bank of Canada, though it seems many analysts are expecting the BOC to wait until October before raising rates again. Despite strong Canadian data, a more gradual increase doesn’t seem unreasonable due to the risks we are still seeing relating to NAFTA, Canadian debt levels, and a cooling housing market
  • The European Central Bank will be meeting on Thursday, with markets not expecting anything to come from it, except perhaps some indication of ECB quantitative easing going forward
  • USD is down ~0.35% on the day; reports that North Korea is planning to fire yet another missile before Saturday has generated safe haven demand, which for now seems to be overshadowing the disappointing U.S. data released Friday
  • U.S. oil refineries across Texas and Louisiana gradually began to resume operations in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey. At the time of writing, WTI was up 2.19% on the day to $48.44, and Brent Crude was up 1.60% to $53.20. Gasoline futures are down, which will hopefully translate into some relief at the pumps
  • Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a Category 5, and is headed to Puerto Rico and eventually Florida, but should be less problematic for the U.S. Petroleum Industry than Harvey