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Canadian and US Job Numbers Beat Expectations; Bank of Canada Primed to Raise Rates on July 11

Published July 6, 2018
  • Data on Canadian Employment Change showed that the Canadian economy added 31,800 jobs in the month of June, marking the first positive employment change in two months. The majority of the job additions came from Ontario in the construction, natural resources and manufacturing sectors.
  • This positive economic data out of Canada is likely to be deemed adequate in the eyes of the Bank of Canada ahead of next week’s interest rate decision; there is currently an 84 percent chance of an interest rate hike on July 11 from Stephen Poloz and the Bank of Canada.
  • US Non-Farm Payrolls also came in positive with an addition of 213,000 jobs versus expectations of 195,000. Conversely, the US unemployment rate crept up from 3.8 percent to 4 percent and year-on-year growth in average hourly earnings came in at 0.2 percent versus expectations of 0.3 percent.
  • The US Trade balance shrank by nearly 3B USD with a reading of -43.1B for the month of May. Canada’s trade deficit widened month-on-month for a final reading of -2.77B CAD.
  • The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has accused the US of setting off “the largest trade war in economic history” with this morning’s implementation of tariffs from both countries; the Trump Administration is showing no sign of yielding in these trade protections and has pledged to impose further tariffs in the coming weeks.