CAD Trades in a Narrow Range, Awaits BoC and Poloz Comments

• Canadian US Durable Goods Orders (excluding transportation) decreased to -0.2% in January from 0.50% in December
• The Business Climate Indicator for the euro area rose above expectations to 0.82 in February, the highest level since June 2011
• GBP is the worst performing G10 currency as the week starts, with more news on another call for a Scottish independence vote as Theresa May readies to trigger Article 50
• The Bank of Canada meeting is a highlight this week with the statement likely unchanged despite policy divergence and any headwinds from the currency
• Focus will be on the Fed and US politics with several speakers including Yellen and Fischer on Friday and President Trump’s address to congress on Tuesday
• Dallas Fed President, Steven Kaplan speaks today at 11:00ET
• CPI data last Friday printed above 2%, but on further look included a 7% spike in gas prices due to the new CO2 taxed in Ontario leaving the core CPI rate still at 1.6%, well below the BoC target rate
• Oil remains in its recent range, up marginally while gold is down slightly
• US Treasury yields aren’t showing the same signs of a generally growing probability that a March Fed rate hike is considered “live”

Chart (1) Odds of a US rate hike March, May and June